Month: September 2018

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 44.8 West.  Florence is temporarily moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and

this general motion is expected to continue with Florence’s forward speed decreasing by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.  A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight and

continue through Friday.  After that time, Florence is forecast to restrengthen through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles

(150 km).

1. A broad area of low pressure accompanied by disorganised cloudiness and showers is entered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week while the system moves west- northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days.  Some development of the system is possible over the

weekend while the wave moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

1. A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganised showers and thunderstorms.

Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward across the eastern tropical

Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centred near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 80.2 West.  The system is moving toward the

west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a westward-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion of the Florida peninsula this morning, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight.

Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical cyclone by tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent